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Opinion / Commentary
Abe's downfall - he failed to 'read the air'
By Joichi Ito (China Daily)
Updated: 2007-09-20 07:25
Shinzo Abe, who stepped down as prime minister last week, is what we call
in Japan an "obocchan." An obocchan is a type of well-to-do, slightly
spoiled child of a powerful family.
Abe may have been an obocchan but, wanting to be liked by everyone, he
made efforts to address the concerns of the working class. Yet despite
his efforts, most Japanese felt that he was unaware of working-class
issues, and that - more than any political scandals the press has been
crowing about - may have been his undoing.
More broadly, while most people liked Abe and believed him to be smart,
the Japanese news media often called him "Kuuki ga Yomenai" or, for
short, "K.Y." "Kuuki" means "air" and "yomenai" means "cannot read." Not
being able to read the air means that you do not know that your guest
wants another cup of tea or that you should be serving cold tea because
it is a hot day. Reading the air is an essential trait for a Japanese
politician.
This shortcoming put Abe at a severe disadvantage compared with his
predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi. Koizumi is famous not only for being the
master of reading the air but also for his unmatched ability to ignore
the advice of the political elite. I would call this the "sonnano
kankeinei" style.
The catchphrase of a popular Japanese comedian whose routine has spread
widely on YouTube, sonnano kankeinei is a crude way of saying, "So what?
I don't care." It would be an uncommon attitude for a politician even in
America, and in Japan was simply unprecedented.
It was a tough act to follow, and Abe tried to read the air but ended up
following too much advice and yielding to the various centers of power
and special interests to which his Liberal Democratic Party has owed its
50-year near monopoly. The result, unsurprisingly, was wishy-washy,
ineffective policy.
For instance, he had the right idea in trying to shake up the
government's stagnant bureaucracy. But instead of taking on a single
group of bureaucrats in a winnable battle - as Koizumi did when he pushed
through a bill privatizing the postal system in 2005 - Abe tried to
change the broader fundamental laws governing federal agencies.
The bureaucrats and their supporters in the Diet turned on him, and he
was stuck in a fight he couldn't win. Very K.Y.
The biggest example of his weakness, however, came when the government
lost the pension records of 50 million workers. In most countries, this
would have caused a riot, if not a revolution. Although concerns over
possible missing records spread among the public late last year, Abe did
not act until the spring.
Many in the public felt he delayed because the government bureaucrats and
business executives closest to him probably did not know anyone who was
affected by the mismanagement of the records. Possibly, but again I think
his failure stemmed not from his insulation but from his crippling Kuuki
ga Yomenai.
These sorts of misjudgments, combined with the string of scandals
resulted in the resignation of several cabinet members and the suicide of
another, were what most pundits feel caused the Liberal Democrats'
disastrous showing at the polls in July.
To some extent that is true. But another huge factor that went to
alienating voters was concerns over what the government and news media
like to call Japan's current economic "recovery".
The problem with this "recovery" is that it reinforces the old stereotype
that Japan's strength lies in construction and exports. While this was a
good strategy for the postwar recovery, it now slows down reform and
diverts valuable human and public resources from the stunted service and
hi-tech industries that Japan needs for long-term growth.
It is no coincidence that before he entered politics, Abe was an
executive at Kobe Steel. And his successor will be more of the same: The
two contenders for his job both have backgrounds in raw materials. Taro
Aso's family company is one of the largest mining and cement concerns in
Japan, and Yusuo Fukuda's business experience is in oil.
This reflects a fundamental problem with Japanese politics. In a policy
supported in part by the American fear of the threat of communism, the
conservative Liberal Democrats stamped out all liberal resistance by
either destroying the careers of members of the opposition or co-opting
them.
This resulted in a single-party system, with disputes negotiated and
settled within the Liberal Democratic Party though a complicated process
of factions and committees.
Many Japanese called this a "democracy in democracy". Perhaps, but this
democracy in democracy was only visible to those in power and is managed
mostly through a system of pork-barrel politics.
In July, the people had had enough and voted against the ruling party,
but the result could be even worse. In deposing Abe, who despite being
part of an old political family was still something of an outsider, they
will see a return of the Liberal Democrats' old guard.
Nor is the opposition any better. The leader of the Democratic Party of
Japan is Ichiro Ozawa, a student of Kakuei Tanaka, the prime minister who
in the 1970s fashioned a public-funds-for-votes system and "rebuilt"
Japan by paving the countryside with concrete.
Perhaps there is a silver lining: The weakness of the Liberal Democrats
may give us the first sustained period of two-party politics since 1955.
If so, the real question is whether it will allow any fresh blood in the
political system.
Unfortunately, Japanese politics is a time-consuming and thankless task.
Young entrepreneurial types shun public service.
Koizumi made a serious effort to get people from outside the old party to
run, but most of those young politicians have already dropped out. (I
have rejected entreaties by both parties to run for office and have no
regrets; according to my friends in junior positions in the Liberal
Democratic Party, their first years have been spent in minor working
groups, never being allowed to speak up at or attend any meetings of
importance).
The heart of the problem is that true multiparty politics should have
started in Japan decades ago. Soon the members of our own postwar baby
boom will be retiring. The looming crisis of a bankrupt Japan, an
overburdened pension system and a corporate ecology of pumped-up
old-economy companies will be upon us.
The man on the street knows this, but in a country that boasts of never
having had a successful revolt of the people, or even a popular uprising
resulting in significant reforms, it is unlikely that such awareness will
be enough to punch through the K.Y. elite and make things change.
The New York Times Syndicate
(China Daily 09/20/2007 page11)
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